Which CS:GO Weapon Cases are dropping?
Weapon Case drops fall into one of three categories, Prime, Non-Prime and Rare. Any weapon case can be marked as rare. For example, the CS:GO Weapon Case is marked as a rare drop and as such has a very low drop rate. Equally, the most recent weapon case (e.g. Fracture Case) which is exclusive to Prime players can still be dropped to Non-Prime players as a rare weapon case drop.
The general rule of thumb is that when a new case is released it is initially an exclusive drop in the Prime Drop Pool. Meanwhile, the oldest case in the prime drop pool is moved to the non-prime drop pool. Consequently, the oldest case in the non-prime pool is then moved to the rare drop pool (often incorrectly referred to as ‘discontinued’).
Prime Drops
Prime weapon case drops are available to players who have Prime Status on their CS:GO account. These are typically weapon cases which were introduced recently. Whilst these weapon cases are usually not available to Non-Prime players, they can still be dropped in very rare instances.
Prime Status can be obtained by either purchasing the Prime Status Upgrade from the Steam store or by reaching Profile Level 21 in CS:GO.
Non-Prime Drops
Non-Prime weapon case drops are only available to players who do not have Prime Status on their CS:GO account. These are typically weapon cases which were introduced a few years ago. Whilst these weapon cases are usually not available to Prime players, they can still be dropped in very rare instances.
Discontinued Cases
Discontinued weapon cases do not drop at all and are only available via the Steam Community Market and through trading.
Whilst not officially confirmed, it is widely accepted within the CS:GO community that the eSports cases available between 2013 and 2014 are no longer available as their original purpose was to raise funds for the major prize pools.
Rare Cases
Rare weapon cases (often incorrectly referred to as ‘discontinued’) are available to prime and non-prime players. These cases were typically either released several years ago or were previously exclusive to operation pass holders.
As the name would suggest, these cases drop in very rare instances (some players reportedly only receiving a ‘rare’ case drop once a year).
CS:GO Operation Weapon Cases
Operation Weapon Cases are initially only available to operation pass holders throughout the duration of the operation. At the conclusion of the operation these weapon cases are made available as drops to all players. However, the most recent operations Hydra and Shattered Web immediately discontinued these weapon cases at the conclusion of each operation and as such have increased in value due to their increasing rarity.
In Chronological Order
These weapon cases have been ordered by release date with the most recent at the top.
Opening Cases
Opening a CS:GO Weapon Case requires the case-specific key to be purchased from within the CS:GO game client. The exceptions to this rule is souvenir packages, gift packages and the X-Ray P250 Package.
These keys were previously sold regularly on the Steam Community Market but after changes imposed by Valve in an update on 28 October 2019 keys have since become a collectible item. This is due to the fact that any keys purchased within the CS:GO game client after 28 October 2019 are non-tradeable and non-marketable, and therefore locked into the Steam account which purchased them.
What is the CS:GO case probability?
The following odds are based on opening 125.12 CS:GO cases. The odds of unboxing a StatTrak skin are 10% of the normal skin odds.
| Rarity | Normal | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-spec | 79.92% | 7.99% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 1.59% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 0.32% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 0.064% |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26% | 0.026% |
StatTrak
StatTrak skins are exclusive to weapon cases and are near identical to their normal counterpart but include a digital six digit counter attached to the weapon.
The counter increments by one for each kill a player makes with the StatTrak weapon skin. Kills made against bots are not counted. If another player picks up someone elses StatTrak weapon the counter will begin flashing between “ERROR” and “UNKNOWN USER”. Any kills made by this player will not be counted.
The counter is reset when the skin is traded or sold on the Steam community market. The value of the StatTrak counter can be transferred to another StatTrak skin using the StatTrak™ Swap Tool which can be purchased ingame and via the Steam community market.
Souvenir CS:GO Skins
Souvenir skins are exclusive to souvenir packages. They are not unboxed from weapon cases.
Release Date
The release date for weapon cases has never been consistent. Valve very rarely announces a weapon case in advance of the update that makes it available ingame.
When the next CS:GO weapon case will be released is not known. However, the recent trend has been three weapon cases released each year. The first in Q1, the second in Q3 and the third in Q4.
| Year | Weapon Cases | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | None released yet | 0 |
| 2020 | Prisma 2 Case, Fracture Case, Operation Broken Fang Case | 3 |
| 2019 | Prisma Case, CS20 Case, Shattered Web Case | 3 |
| 2018 | Clutch Case, Horizon Case, Danger Zone Case | 3 |
| 2017 | Spectrum Case, Operation Hydra Case, Spectrum 2 Case | 3 |
| 2016 | Operation Wildfire Case, Chroma 3 Case, Gamma Case, Gamma 2 Case, Glove Case | 5 |
| 2015 | Chroma Case, Chroma 2 Case, Falchion Case, Shadow Case, Revolver Case | 5 |
| 2014 | CS:GO Weapon Case 3, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 6 |
| 2013 | CS:GO Weapon Case, eSports 2013 Case, Operation Bravo Case, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, eSports 2013 Winter Case, Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 6 |