Which CS:GO Weapon Cases are dropping?
Weapon Case drops fall into one of three categories, Prime, Rare and Discontinued. Any weapon case can be marked as rare. For example, the CS:GO Weapon Case is marked as a rare drop and as such has a very low drop rate.
The previous general rule of thumb was that when a new case was released it was initially an exclusive drop in the Prime Drop Pool. Meanwhile, the oldest case in the prime drop pool was moved to the non-prime drop pool. Consequently, the oldest case in the non-prime pool was then moved to the rare drop pool (often incorrectly referred to as 'discontinued').
Prime Drops
Prime weapon case drops are available to players who have Prime Status on their CS:GO account. These are typically weapon cases which were introduced recently and currently consist of the Dreams & Nightmares, Snakebite, Fracture, Prisma 2 and Clutch Case.
Prime Status can be obtained by purchasing the Prime Status Upgrade from the Steam store. It was previously obtainable by reaching Profile Level 21 in CS:GO prior to the 'Adjustments to Non-Prime' CS:GO update on 3rd June 2021.
The Recoil Case is the most recent CS:GO case to be added to the Prime Drop pool.
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Rare Cases
Rare weapon cases (often incorrectly referred to as 'discontinued') are available to prime players. These cases were typically either released several years ago or were previously exclusive to operation pass holders.
As the name would suggest, these cases drop in very rare instances with some players reportedly only receiving a 'rare' case drop once a year. Player collected data suggests that the percentage probability of receiving a rare case drop is 1%.
The weapon cases listed below are marked as rare for all players.
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Discontinued Cases
Discontinued weapon cases do not drop at all and are only available via the Steam Community Market and through trading.
Whilst not officially confirmed, it is widely accepted within the CS:GO community that the eSports cases available between 2013 and 2014 are no longer available as their original purpose was to raise funds for the major prize pools.
The cases for Operations Shattered Web, Broken Fang and Riptide were discontinued at the conclusion of their respective operations. They do not appear to drop as part of the 'Rare' drop pool and as such are classified as discontinued.
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Dreams & Nightmares Case
The Dreams and Nightmares Case is a CS:GO weapon case that was announced on 21 July 2021 and later released the following year on 20 January 2022.
The case contains 17 skins, all of which were selected from the Dreams & Nightmares contest which ran from 22 July 2021 through to 21 October 2021.
This was the second CS:GO weapon case contest, the first being the CS20 Case from 2019 which was a celebration of 20 years of Counter-Strike. Similar to the CS20 Case, the Dreams and Nightmares Case also has a unique case gradient colour that deviates from the usual yellow community cases.
Non-Prime Drops
Non-Prime weapon case drops were only available to players who did not have Prime Status on their CS:GO account. However, the non-prime drop pool was discontinued with the CS:GO update 'Adjustments to Non-Prime' on 3rd June 2021.
Non-Prime players no longer receive weapon cases, skins or graffiti drops. Prime status can no longer be obtained for free by levelling up to Profile Level 21.
The CS20, Horizon, Spectrum 2, Gamma 2, Chroma 3 and Revolver cases have since been moved to the 'Rare' drop pool.
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CS:GO Operation Weapon Cases
Operation Weapon Cases are initially only available to operation pass holders throughout the duration of the operation. For operations Bravo through Wildfire, at the conclusion of the operation these weapon cases were made available as drops to all players. However, the most recent operations Hydra, Shattered Web and Broken Fang immediately discontinued these weapon cases at the conclusion of each operation and as such have increased in value due to their increasing rarity.
Players who do not hold an active operation pass can only obtain these weapon cases from the Steam Community Market, trading or via a third-party marketplace.
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Operation Payback
The first CS:GO operation known as Operation Payback did not include an exclusive weapon case. It remains to date as the only operation to not feature a new weapon case.
Operation Bravo
The Operation Bravo Case was available to all players with or without the operation pass for the duration of Operation Bravo (19 September 2013 - 5 February 2014), but players who had activated the operation pass had a significantly higher chance of receiving a Bravo case drop.
Operation Phoenix
The Operation Phoenix Weapon Case was available exclusively to players throughout the duration of Operation Phoenix.
Operation Vanguard
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case was available exclusively to players throughout the duration of Operation Vanguard.
Operation Bloodhound
The Falchion Case was available exclusively to players throughout the duration of Operation Bloodhound. It was also the first operation weapon case to not feature the name of the operation itself, with the case being named 'Falchion' after the new Falchion knife it introduced as opposed to 'Bloodhound'.
Operation Wildfire
The Operation Wildfire Case was available exclusively to players throughout the duration of Operation Wildfire.
At the conclusion of the operation the Wildfire Case was made available to all players. This would be the final operation weapon case to be made available after the end of an operation.
Operation Hydra
The Operation Hydra Case was the first operation case to be severely restricted in volume with each player only being eligible to obtain up to a maximum of 9 cases. As a result this heavily limited the total number of Hydra cases that were awarded to operation pass holders, which in turn has driven up the price of the case higher than any other operation case (with the exception of the Bravo case).
At the conclusion of Operation Hydra the case was immediately moved to the rare drop pool.
Operation Shattered Web
The Shattered Web Case was available exclusively to players through the battlepass system introduced in Operation Shattered Web.
This was the second operation weapon case to not include the word 'Operation', though it did include the name of the operation itself, unlike the Falchion Case from the Bloodhound operation.
Operation Broken Fang
The Operation Broken Fang Case was available to players who had activated an Operation Premium Pass. It could be purchased from the Operation Broken Fang store within the CS:GO game client for 2 stars.
Operation Riptide
The Operation Riptide Case was available to players who had activated an Operation Premium Pass. It could be purchased from the Operation Riptide store within the CS:GO game client for 2 stars.
In Chronological Order
These weapon cases have been ordered by release date with the most recent at the top.
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Opening Cases
Opening a CS:GO Weapon Case requires the case-specific key to be purchased from within the CS:GO game client. The exceptions to this rule is souvenir packages, gift packages and the X-Ray P250 Package.
These keys were previously sold regularly on the Steam Community Market but after changes imposed by Valve in an update on 28 October 2019 keys have since become a collectible item. This is due to the fact that any keys purchased within the CS:GO game client after 28 October 2019 are non-tradeable and non-marketable, and therefore locked into the Steam account which purchased them.
What is the CS:GO case probability?
The following odds are based on opening 125.12 CS:GO cases. The odds of unboxing a StatTrak skin are 10% of the normal skin odds.
| Rarity | Normal | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-spec | 79.92% | 7.99% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 1.59% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 0.32% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 0.064% |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26% | 0.026% |
StatTrak
StatTrak skins are exclusive to weapon cases and are near identical to their normal counterpart but include a digital six digit counter attached to the weapon.
The counter increments by one for each kill a player makes with the StatTrak weapon skin. Kills made against bots are not counted. If another player picks up someone elses StatTrak weapon the counter will begin flashing between "ERROR" and "UNKNOWN USER". Any kills made by this player will not be counted.
The counter is reset when the skin is traded or sold on the Steam community market. The value of the StatTrak counter can be transferred to another StatTrak skin using the StatTrak™ Swap Tool which can be purchased ingame and via the Steam community market.
Souvenir CS:GO Skins
Souvenir skins are exclusive to souvenir packages. They are not unboxed from weapon cases.
Release Date
The release date for weapon cases has never been consistent. Valve very rarely announces a weapon case in advance of the update that makes it available ingame.
When the next CS:GO weapon case will be released is not known. However, the recent trend has been three weapon cases released each year. The first in Q1, the second in Q3 and the third in Q4.
| Year | Weapon Cases | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Dreams & Nightmares Case, Recoil Case | 2 |
| 2021 | Snakebite Case, Operation Riptide Case | 2 |
| 2020 | Prisma 2 Case, Fracture Case, Operation Broken Fang Case | 3 |
| 2019 | Prisma Case, CS20 Case, Shattered Web Case | 3 |
| 2018 | Clutch Case, Horizon Case, Danger Zone Case | 3 |
| 2017 | Spectrum Case, Operation Hydra Case, Spectrum 2 Case | 3 |
| 2016 | Operation Wildfire Case, Chroma 3 Case, Gamma Case, Gamma 2 Case, Glove Case | 5 |
| 2015 | Chroma Case, Chroma 2 Case, Falchion Case, Shadow Case, Revolver Case | 5 |
| 2014 | CS:GO Weapon Case 3, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 6 |
| 2013 | CS:GO Weapon Case, eSports 2013 Case, Operation Bravo Case, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, eSports 2013 Winter Case, Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 6 |