Which CS:GO Weapon Cases are dropping?
Weapon Case drops fall into one of two categories, Prime and Rare. Any weapon case can be marked as rare. For example, the CS:GO Weapon Case is marked as a rare drop and as such has a very low drop rate.
The previous general rule of thumb was that when a new case was released it was initially an exclusive drop in the Prime Drop Pool. Meanwhile, the oldest case in the prime drop pool was moved to the non-prime drop pool. Consequently, the oldest case in the non-prime pool was then moved to the rare drop pool (often incorrectly referred to as 'discontinued').
Dreams and Nightmares Case
The Dreams and Nightmares Case is an upcoming CS:GO weapon case that was announced on 21 July 2021 and is scheduled for release later this year.
The case will contain 17 skins, 10 of which will be selected from the Dreams & Nightmares contest running from 22 July 2021 through to 21 October 2021.
This will be the second CS:GO weapon case contest, the first being the CS20 Case from 2019 which was a celebration of 20 years of Counter-Strike. Similar to the CS20 Case, the Dreams and Nightmares Case also has a unique case gradient colour that deviates from the usual yellow community cases.
The Dreams and Nightmares Case is speculated to be released in late November 2021.
Prime Drops
Prime weapon case drops are available to players who have Prime Status on their CS:GO account. These are typically weapon cases which were introduced recently and currently consist of the Snakebite, Fracture, Prisma 2, Danger Zone and Clutch Case.
Prime Status can be obtained by purchasing the Prime Status Upgrade from the Steam store. It was previously obtainable by reaching Profile Level 21 in CS:GO prior to the 'Adjustments to Non-Prime' CS:GO update on 3rd June 2021.
The Snakebite Case is the most recent CS:GO case to be added to the Prime Drop pool.
$0.76
$0.19
$0.06
$0.07
$0.24
Non-Prime Drops
Non-Prime weapon case drops were only available to players who did not have Prime Status on their CS:GO account. However, the non-prime drop pool has since been discontinued with the CS:GO update 'Adjustments to Non-Prime' on 3rd June 2021.
Non-Prime players no longer receive weapon cases, skins or graffiti drops. Prime status can no longer be obtained for free by levelling up to Profile Level 21.
The CS20, Horizon, Spectrum 2, Gamma 2, Chroma 3 and Revolver cases have since been moved to the 'Rare' drop pool.
$0.18
$0.11
$0.36
$0.40
$0.17
$0.12
Rare Cases
Rare weapon cases (often incorrectly referred to as 'discontinued') are available to prime players. These cases were typically either released several years ago or were previously exclusive to operation pass holders.
As the name would suggest, these cases drop in very rare instances with some players reportedly only receiving a 'rare' case drop once a year.
The weapon cases listed below are marked as rare for all players.
$0.56
$1.27
$0.18
$0.07
$0.11
$0.36
$10.35
$0.72
$1.85
$0.40
$0.37
$0.17
$0.39
$0.12
$0.23
$0.28
$0.39
$0.95
$0.95
$2.61
$3.86
$1.05
$3.93
$4.03
$6.67
$40.81
$51.00
Discontinued Cases
Discontinued weapon cases do not drop at all and are only available via the Steam Community Market and through trading.
Whilst not officially confirmed, it is widely accepted within the CS:GO community that the eSports cases available between 2013 and 2014 are no longer available as their original purpose was to raise funds for the major prize pools.
$5.14
$4.53
$35.29
CS:GO Operation Weapon Cases
Operation Weapon Cases are initially only available to operation pass holders throughout the duration of the operation. At the conclusion of the operation these weapon cases are made available as drops to all players. However, the most recent operations Hydra, Shattered Web and Broken Fang immediately discontinued these weapon cases at the conclusion of each operation and as such have increased in value due to their increasing rarity.
$0.56
$1.27
$10.35
$0.39
$0.28
$0.95
$2.61
$1.05
$40.81
Operation Bravo
The Operation Bravo Case was available to all players with or without the operation pass for the duration of Operation Bravo (19 September 2013 - 5 February 2014), but players who had activated the operation pass had a significantly higher chance of receiving a Bravo case drop.
Operation Hydra
The Operation Hydra Case was the first operation case to be severely restricted in volume with each player only being eligible to obtain up to a maximum of 9 cases. As a result this heavily limited the total number of Hydra cases that were awarded to operation pass holders, which in turn has driven up the price of the case higher than any other operation case (with the exception of the Bravo case).
At the conclusion of Operation Hydra the case was immediately moved to the rare drop pool.
Operation Broken Fang
The Operation Broken Fang Case was available to players who had activated an Operation Premium Pass. It could be purchased from the Operation Broken Fang store within the CS:GO game client for 2 stars.
In Chronological Order
These weapon cases have been ordered by release date with the most recent at the top.
$0.76
$0.56
$0.19
$0.06
$1.27
$0.18
$2.72
$0.07
$0.07
$0.11
$0.24
$0.36
$10.35
$0.72
$1.85
$0.40
$0.37
$0.17
$0.39
$0.12
$0.23
$0.28
$0.39
$0.95
$0.95
$5.14
$2.61
$3.86
$1.05
$3.93
$4.03
$4.53
$6.67
$40.81
$35.29
$51.00
Opening Cases
Opening a CS:GO Weapon Case requires the case-specific key to be purchased from within the CS:GO game client. The exceptions to this rule is souvenir packages, gift packages and the X-Ray P250 Package.
These keys were previously sold regularly on the Steam Community Market but after changes imposed by Valve in an update on 28 October 2019 keys have since become a collectible item. This is due to the fact that any keys purchased within the CS:GO game client after 28 October 2019 are non-tradeable and non-marketable, and therefore locked into the Steam account which purchased them.
What is the CS:GO case probability?
The following odds are based on opening 125.12 CS:GO cases. The odds of unboxing a StatTrak skin are 10% of the normal skin odds.
| Rarity | Normal | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-spec | 79.92% | 7.99% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 1.59% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 0.32% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 0.064% |
| Rare Special Item | 0.26% | 0.026% |
StatTrak
StatTrak skins are exclusive to weapon cases and are near identical to their normal counterpart but include a digital six digit counter attached to the weapon.
The counter increments by one for each kill a player makes with the StatTrak weapon skin. Kills made against bots are not counted. If another player picks up someone elses StatTrak weapon the counter will begin flashing between "ERROR" and "UNKNOWN USER". Any kills made by this player will not be counted.
The counter is reset when the skin is traded or sold on the Steam community market. The value of the StatTrak counter can be transferred to another StatTrak skin using the StatTrak™ Swap Tool which can be purchased ingame and via the Steam community market.
Souvenir CS:GO Skins
Souvenir skins are exclusive to souvenir packages. They are not unboxed from weapon cases.
Release Date
The release date for weapon cases has never been consistent. Valve very rarely announces a weapon case in advance of the update that makes it available ingame.
When the next CS:GO weapon case will be released is not known. However, the recent trend has been three weapon cases released each year. The first in Q1, the second in Q3 and the third in Q4.
| Year | Weapon Cases | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Snakebite Case | 1 |
| 2020 | Prisma 2 Case, Fracture Case, Operation Broken Fang Case | 3 |
| 2019 | Prisma Case, CS20 Case, Shattered Web Case | 3 |
| 2018 | Clutch Case, Horizon Case, Danger Zone Case | 3 |
| 2017 | Spectrum Case, Operation Hydra Case, Spectrum 2 Case | 3 |
| 2016 | Operation Wildfire Case, Chroma 3 Case, Gamma Case, Gamma 2 Case, Glove Case | 5 |
| 2015 | Chroma Case, Chroma 2 Case, Falchion Case, Shadow Case, Revolver Case | 5 |
| 2014 | CS:GO Weapon Case 3, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 6 |
| 2013 | CS:GO Weapon Case, eSports 2013 Case, Operation Bravo Case, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, eSports 2013 Winter Case, Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 6 |